Don't Believe the Data
Normally, I am a big believer in data, but there are times when the data doesn’t reflect the true numbers. And the data that depicts how many High School baseball players go on to play College Baseball is one of those times. Below is a chart from the NCAA showing how many High School players go on to play collegiately.
The problem I have with these figures is that it assumes that every one of those “High School Participants” actually wants to play College Baseball. And that is just simply not the case. But many people use the 7.3% number in conversations with kids as a way to communicate “don’t set your hopes too high.”
Another problem with this data is that we do not know whether whether the HS Participants that do want to play college baseball have a D1 or nothing mindset. Many kids, for whatever reason, believe that they need to play D1. They believe that D2, D3, NAIA, or JUCO is not worth the time. I can give MANY examples of D2 programs that are better than D1 programs; but we will leave that for another time. But for those players with the D1 or nothing mindset, they will skew the numbers if they are not recruited by D1 schools.
Presenting this data is ok as it is factual; but those communicating these numbers should be communicating my points listed above. They need to communicate that the numbers don’t reflect the true story. I believe that there is a home for HS players that truly want to play college baseball; but they need to be open to all opportunities; and not be selective.
I often give the following analogy when talking to kids about the recruiting process. If you say you’re hungry, and I bring you a plate of food; my expectation is that you will eat the food. If your response is “I don’t really like this food, do you have anything else”, I can assume that you weren’t truly hungry. If you say you want to play College Baseball; but not willing to look at non-D1 schools, you don’t really want to play College Baseball.
If you want to play College Baseball, there is a home for you. Don’t let the data dissuade you because it’s not painting the clearest picture. Work hard and have an open mind. You can still refine your search by geography, major, finances, etc and still find plenty of options. There is a spot for you somewhere!